Tsetlin Machines (TMs) have emerged as a compelling alternative to conventional deep learning methods, offering notable advantages such as smaller memory footprint, faster inference, fault-tolerant properties, and interpretability. Although various adaptations of TMs have expanded their applicability across diverse domains, a fundamental gap remains in understanding how TMs quantify uncertainty in their predictions. In response, this paper introduces the Probabilistic Tsetlin Machine (PTM) framework, aimed at providing a robust, reliable, and interpretable approach for uncertainty quantification. Unlike the original TM, the PTM learns the probability of staying on each state of each Tsetlin Automaton (TA) across all clauses. These probabilities are updated using the feedback tables that are part of the TM framework: Type I and Type II feedback. During inference, TAs decide their actions by sampling states based on learned probability distributions, akin to Bayesian neural networks when generating weight values. In our experimental analysis, we first illustrate the spread of the probabilities across TA states for the noisy-XOR dataset. Then we evaluate the PTM alongside benchmark models using both simulated and real-world datasets. The experiments on the simulated dataset reveal the PTM's effectiveness in uncertainty quantification, particularly in delineating decision boundaries and identifying regions of high uncertainty. Moreover, when applied to multiclass classification tasks using the Iris dataset, the PTM demonstrates competitive performance in terms of predictive entropy and expected calibration error, showcasing its potential as a reliable tool for uncertainty estimation. Our findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models for accurate uncertainty quantification in predictive tasks, with the PTM offering a particularly interpretable and effective solution.

Traditional dialogue state tracking approaches heavily rely on extensive training data and handcrafted features, limiting their scalability and adaptability to new domains. In this paper, we propose a novel method that leverages inference and in-context learning with ChatGPT for domain transfer in dialogue state tracking, without any parameter updates. By guiding ChatGPT's chain of thought, we enable it to retrieve relevant examples and generalize knowledge to accurately infer dialogue states, solely through inference. Experimental results on the MultiWOZ dataset demonstrate competitive performance and promising generalization across domains. Our parameter-free approach offers a scalable and adaptable solution, opening new research directions in domain transfer learning.

Trusting the predictions of deep learning models in safety critical settings such as the medical domain is still not a viable option. Distentangled uncertainty quantification in the field of medical imaging has received little attention. In this paper, we study disentangled uncertainties in image to image translation tasks in the medical domain. We compare multiple uncertainty quantification methods, namely Ensembles, Flipout, Dropout, and DropConnect, while using CycleGAN to convert T1-weighted brain MRI scans to T2-weighted brain MRI scans. We further evaluate uncertainty behavior in the presence of out of distribution data (Brain CT and RGB Face Images), showing that epistemic uncertainty can be used to detect out of distribution inputs, which should increase reliability of model outputs.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) is a common approach to learning predictive models using not only labeled examples, but also unlabeled examples. While SSL for the simple tasks of classification and regression has received a lot of attention from the research community, this is not properly investigated for complex prediction tasks with structurally dependent variables. This is the case of multi-label classification and hierarchical multi-label classification tasks, which may require additional information, possibly coming from the underlying distribution in the descriptive space provided by unlabeled examples, to better face the challenging task of predicting simultaneously multiple class labels. In this paper, we investigate this aspect and propose a (hierarchical) multi-label classification method based on semi-supervised learning of predictive clustering trees. We also extend the method towards ensemble learning and propose a method based on the random forest approach. Extensive experimental evaluation conducted on 23 datasets shows significant advantages of the proposed method and its extension with respect to their supervised counterparts. Moreover, the method preserves interpretability and reduces the time complexity of classical tree-based models.

We propose a family of Passive-Aggressive Mahalanobis (PAM) algorithms, which are incremental (online) binary classifiers that consider the distribution of data. PAM is in fact a generalization of the Passive-Aggressive (PA) algorithms to handle data distributions that can be represented by a covariance matrix. The update equations for PAM are derived and theoretical error loss bounds computed. We benchmarked PAM against the original PA-I, PA-II, and Confidence Weighted (CW) learning. Although PAM somewhat resembles CW in its update equations, PA minimizes differences in the weights while CW minimizes differences in weight distributions. Results on 8 classification datasets, which include a real-life micro-blog sentiment classification task, show that PAM consistently outperformed its competitors, most notably CW. This shows that a simple approach like PAM is more practical in real-life classification tasks, compared to more elegant and sophisticated approaches like CW.